Thirty-nine days that shook adland

The Gulf obviously faces the most direct impact from the current Iran conflict among the world’s major advertising markets. WPP Media’s pre-conflict forecast of high single digit regional ad growth has been compressed to mid-single digits under our base case, with strong recovery expected in 2027 as sovereign investment plans resume. The long-term opportunity driven by demographics, sovereign capital, and digital transformation, remains structurally intact.  

In the shorter term, aggregate growth is likely to mask pockets of strength and weakness with channels like OOH facing significant disruption from decreased foot traffic and travel, while digital channels like social, retail and search prove more resilient due to the perception of increased flexibility and defensible, performance-led budgets.  

Some advertiser sectors are likely to react differently as well. We anticipate that travel and tourism will see the greatest impact in the near term, while ecommerce, financial services, and AI technology are likely to be more resilient.  

The underlying trends across government investment, GDP growth, and consumer spending leading up to the conflict, point to this being a disruption to anticipated growth, rather than a structural breakdown of consumer confidence and spending. As is the case globally, there are several systemic drivers of growth that are supporting a healthy advertising industry despite the geopolitical and economic realities of multiple armed conflicts, rising food and energy inflation, and deep uncertainty: the increased concentration of ad revenue among the top 25 global sellers of advertising, the expansion of China-based retailers and marketplace sellers worldwide (diversifying beyond the U.S. as trade tensions continue), and the rapid growth of AI.  

1. Increased concentration: Platforms with diversified advertising revenue, AI-driven efficiency, and pricing power such as Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, ByteDance, and others, insulate aggregate ad revenue from localized or sector-specific shocks. 

2. Ecommerce expansion: Domestic demand in China remains weak, pushing Chinese firms like Temu, Shein, BYD, and a growing number of AI and consumer technology companies, to advertise aggressively in international markets. 

3. AI Investment: The AI race in the technology sector is leading to corporate investment, new business creation, and an increase in business efficiencies that companies can reinvest into growth activities like paid media.  

Advertising growth in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to be softer this year than the 8% forecasted in WPP Media’s December 2025 This Year, Next Year Report. But the region’s fundamentals - population growth, government investment, tourism ambitions, digital adoption and retail transformation - remain intact, and point to significant growth through the end of the decade. 

Originally published in ArabAd.