This Year Next Year 2023: Our global advertising forecast for 2023-2024

Today we're releasing our end-of-year edition of our “This Year Next Year” advertising forecast, which evaluates global advertising investment for 2023 and anticipates trends in investment for 2024.  The report finds that resilient consumer behavior has driven 5.8% global growth in advertising investment for 2023, reaching a $889 billion (excluding spend on U.S. political advertising).

The forecast also anticipates a projected deceleration in advertising investment growth rates to 5.3% for 2024, albeit still representing an improvement in real terms, adjusting for inflation. The trajectory is poised to return to positive real growth in 2025, with a predicted nominal growth rate of 5.6%.

The forecast also sheds light on noteworthy market shifts. While the U.S. and China retain their positions as the two largest ad revenue markets, respectively, the U.K. has overtaken Japan for the third spot. Germany and France maintain their rankings, with Canada moving back from seven to nine, Brazil rising from eight to seven, and India climbs from nine to eight. Australia remains the tenth largest market for ad revenue. These rankings are expected to hold for 2024, unless, of course, U.S. political ad revenue is counted as its own market, in which case it would soar past Australia and sit just behind Canada in tenth.

Detailing the digital ad revenue landscape, the report underscores the accelerated growth of ‘pure play’ digital, excluding extensions like CTV and DOOH. Retail media, emerging as a rapidly expanding segment within digital, anticipates substantial growth. Search and the ‘other’ segment, dominated by social media giants, continue to bolster digital revenue.

Television, encompassing CTV, remains a significant channel for global ad revenue, while out-of-home (OOH) advertising and its digital segment, DOOH, showcase robust growth trajectories. Audio ad revenue, including streaming audio, presents a mixed picture with a slight decline in 2023 but potential growth in the streaming audio subsector.